What Will George Bush Do About North Korea?
By Tom Adkins (08/04/03)
Now that Iraq has been somewhat tamed with a swift and decisive campaign against Saddam Hussein, the United States is in the middle of a complex nation-building process. During the past 18 months, however, the Bush administration handled another, possibly greater threat with amazing diplomatic maneuver. Yet few recognize the victory. Let's look at the Korean Crisis as it simmers on our back burner.
Early in the Bush Presidency, the Korean peninsula was so quiet that South Korea asked us to consider removing our troops. But when 9/11 signaled the start of a long war against terrorism, President Bush pointed out North Korean dictator Kim Il Sung was part of the "Axis of Evil." Kim took the bait and showed his hand. Believing America was vulnerable, Kim revealed he had duped Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, admitting a nuclear weapons program. Now, he threatened to use nukes to stop American "hostile policies," fend off South Korean threats, and take on the evil Japanese. It wasn't a bad gamble. The last time North Korea rattled the nuclear saber, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter capitulated like frightened Cub Scouts listening to scary campfire stories. Clinton gave North Korea free oil, food and light water nuclear technology in exchange for a promise to stop playing with nuclear toys. Kim agreed, a bargain any fool knew he'd never keep. This time, Kim threatened all sorts of trouble. And after 9/11, George Bush was in a theoretically weakened position.
But Bush has performed a master stroke. Recognizing a nuclear loose cannon in North Korea is a far greater threat to China than the United States, Bush simply ignored Kim. This warned all surrounding nations: they had a direct stake in the outcome. Suddenly, South Korea asked us to stick around. Japan is now seriously considering a nuclear defense. And the last thing China wants is a greater American presence, a better armed North Korea, and six nuclear neighbors (Russia, Pakistan, India, North Korea, South Korea, Japan). The more nukes in the neighborhood, the less valuable China's Loral-guided fleet of ICBMs, which protects its Pacific expansionist designs, becomes.
China, supplying energy and food to North Korea's failed communist economy, is in a unique position to rope in their crazed ally. Wisely, they waited to observe Bush in action. But this week, after our decisive victory and Bush's firm commitment in Iraq, China took the reins in the Korean discussions, essentially telling Kim to knock it off. At that moment, George Bush had his brilliant diplomatic victory.
By doing absolutely nothing, the burden of keeping Kim in line defaults to China in perpetuity, and rallies our friends. North Korea began by threatening the United States, but Bush maneuvered China into the dirty work and made them pay the price. Diplomacy doesn't get any sweeter than that. And there's another benefit: As China grudgingly pays Kim's debts, they admit communist failure while the whole world watches.
And what sweet revenge! On the 50th anniversary of the divided stalemate created when a million Chinese troops crossed the Yalu River, George Bush has hung the massive North Korean stone around China's neck, the last-place ribbon in a high-stakes gamble.
It all goes back to President Bush's decisive military action and commitment to victory. Funny…Bush set the war dogs on Saddam Hussein, and the world's bad guys suddenly became "cooperative." Syria kicked out Uday Hussein. Iran got more enthusiastic about getting inspected. Al Qaeda is still homeless. Saif al-eslam Gadhafi (Moammar's son) asked the United States to bury the hatchet with Libya. And after Uday and Qusay got their 50-caliber enema, China kicked Kim Il Sung back into the doghouse.
North Korea played the same trick on two presidents. Clinton had far better position and lost. Despite much worse position, Bush gained diplomatic advantage. This proves fighting wisely from a modest position can bring more success than capitulating from a strong position. As Sun Tzu noted, "To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence. The victories won by a master of war gain him neither reputation for wisdom nor merit for courage." Of course, the pundit class appeasers are behind the curve, still wondering what George Bush intends to do about North Korea. They can't comprehend victory without a big photo-op signing ceremony with flags, papers and pens flying about. Meanwhile, the battle has been won, without a shot.
Like Reagan, Bush will receive no credit for a brilliant victory nobody recognizes. But then again, they rarely do.
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