The Third Party Illusion
By Joe Mariani (06/08/06)
With all the Conservative anger directed toward Liberal Republicans these days over immigration and overspending (among other things), it's only natural that talk turns to third party politics as the midterm elections approach. Even such a Republican stalwart as Peggy Noonan, special assistant to President Ronald Reagan and chief speechwriter for President George H. W. Bush, recently wondered in a Wall Street Journal op-ed whether it might be the right time for a new political party. The answer, sadly, is no.
Slick-talking professional politicians with what seem like lifetime appointments to Congress have soured people on both sides of the aisle, the Left no less than the Right. Many people feel their voices aren't being heard (unless, of course, they speak Spanish or ask for government handouts). But while the Democratic party remains intact, making a break to a third party can only be disastrous for Conservatives.
Generally speaking, in many states as well as nationwide, the number of those who vote Republican and Democrat are pretty close to even. For starters, no third party can really get of the ground without adequate financial backing and charismatic, effective leadership. Given those things, a Right-leaning third party still only has two ways to win. They can take all Republican votes without missing any, or take votes from both sides. Either way, the end result would be the same.
If a truly Conservative third party emerged, there's no way it would take all the votes that normally go to the Republican party. Even if it managed to avoid the religious overtones and isolationism of the Constitution or America First parties, not all Republican voters are really Conservative. The only way a third party could completely replace the Republican party would be to duplicate the Republican party, which would put Conservatives right back in the same position we currently occupy.
Furthermore, a growing Conservative party would force the Republican party to become even more Liberal than it currently is, to retain power by taking votes from among the more Conservative Democrats. In the end, America would have a medium-sized Conservative party, a small middle-Right party, and a Democratic party not much smaller than it is now -- and stripped of its moderate voters. With two opposing parties to its Left, a Conservative party would have a hard time pushing its agenda.
Suppose a middle-right party like the Libertarians (fiscally Conservative, but socially Liberal) gained power? A middle party would weaken both Republicans and Democrats, forcing both parties to play more to their respective bases. Good for Conservatives, right? No. Again, the smaller, more Conservative Republican party would face a pair of more Liberal parties, and have a tough time passing Conservative legislation.
So what's the answer -- just lie down and take whatever the Republican elites dish out? Hardly. The best answer, as long as the Democratic party remains whole, will require time and effort. First, Conservatives must use the primary election process to replace Liberal Republicans with their more Conservative opposition. That's the point to holding primaries.
Second, voters must pay closer attention to their candidates for office and how they vote. It's easy to throw up your hands and proclaim, "I won't vote for any more Republicans!" The problem is that your Senators and Representative might not merit replacement for the reasons that you want change. For instance, only four Republican Senators running for re-election in 2006 voted for the Senate's illegal immigration amnesty bill -- Lincoln Chafee (RI), Mike DeWine (OH), Richard Lugar (IN) and Olympia Snowe (ME). Throwing those four out of office, even at the cost of allowing Democrats to take those seats, would send the right message. When the other Republicans who voted for amnesty come up for re-election, they'll have to go through a primary election as well. That's the right time to remove them from office.
On the other hand, voting against Senators like Rick Santorum, John Ensign or George Allen out of anger over illegal immigration would be ridiculous, as they all came out strongly against the amnesty bill. Intelligent, careful voting is the way to take back the Republican party without putting the Democrats in charge.
A third way to make your voice heard is with your wallet. The national Republican party might see the message in dwindling contributions, while your money might be better spent directly on a more Conservative candidate with whose positions you agree.
It's not a fast or easy process, but real change rarely is.
http://guardian.blogdrive.com/archive/cm-06_cy-2006_m-06_d-07_y-2006_o-0.html
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