Statecraft and Stagecraft
By Joe Mariani (10/19/06)
Less than a week after North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon, the fifteen members of the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution invoking sanctions against the regime of Kim Jong-Il. Finally, the UN has "done something" to prevent him from building another one, right? In fact, nothing could be further from the truth.
Yes, the resolution demanded "that the DPRK not conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile." It also required "that the DPRK shall eliminate its nuclear weapons and nuclear programme in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner," as well as "other weapons of mass destruction." Tough talk, to be sure. But talk is cheap.
The resolution also called upon all member states to impose a massive two-way arms embargo upon North Korea, prohibiting the sale or purchase of tanks, combat aircraft, warships, missiles and other big-ticket items. If all nations follow through, this might actually damage North Korea's economy, as weaponry is its only export.
That might get his attention even more than the ban on "luxury items," which, as US Ambassador John Bolton joked, might be "a little diet for Kim Jong-Il." But the resolution's call for every nation to perform cargo inspections was worded in such a way as to let any country that doesn't want to inspect North Korean cargoes too closely (say, for instance, China) off the hook. China does more business with North Korea than all other countries combined, supplying up to 90 percent of its oil and 80 percent of its consumer goods.
Unfortunately for all of us, UNSC resolution #1718 is all bark and very little bite, due to opposition from Russia and China. Nevertheless, the North Korean representative immediately stated that sanctions amounted to an act of war, storming out of the United Nations meeting. China then refused to impose even the weakened sanctions to which they had agreed. Of course, the Chinese government later made a show of cooperation by staging inspections of some trucks at a border crossing...but still refused to inspect cargo ships. Like the objections to North Korea's belligerence and refusal to participate in talks, the inspections were merely a ruse designed to make China look friendly and cooperative, while ultimately protecting North Korea.
The problem is that although the Chinese government may have some disagreements with Kim Jong-Il and his methods, they need North Korea to remain exactly as it is.
As long as North Korea is a harsh Communist regime under which most people live in abject poverty, China's own, slightly more moderate Communist government looks positively benign by comparison -- to American as well as Chinese eyes. While a repressive, militaristic dictator rules North Korea, China can expect friendly dealings with the United States. China fears any real change in North Korea for two reasons. On one hand, they fear that millions of starving refugees will pour across the border into an already overpopulated China if North Korea's government falls. On the other hand, democratic reform in North Korea might give Chinese citizens a place towards which to flee.
Those who think China will honestly help impose any sanctions -- much less harsher measures -- against North Korea have forgotten the long-standing relationship between those two countries. China insisted that the resolution include the line, "further decisions will be required, should additional measures be necessary," in an attempt to hamstring the United States. There is almost no chance China would refrain from using its veto to forestall action against North Korea.
With Kim Jong-Il possibly readying a second nuclear test, the United States and her allies have to take the situation seriously, even if China and the United Nations prefer to dither and delay. We may have to arm Japan, in much the same manner that Ronald Reagan deployed Pershing-2 missiles in Europe to push the Soviet Union into a military buildup that crashed its economy. We might have to seriously consider a preemptive strike, regardless of the outcry from dictators' mouthpieces. We can't outsource our national security to the United Nations.
If China will not actively help to restrain North Korea's nuclear ambitions, we may have to choose between a North Korea armed with nuclear-tipped missiles or an angry China. At least China -- we hope -- can be reasoned with.
http://guardian.blogdrive.com/archive/cm-10_cy-2006_m-10_d-18_y-2006_o-0.html
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