Final 2006 Election Predictions
By Adam Graham (10/30/06)
It's come that time again to take my stance on what will happen in the November elections. These predictions are just that, predictions. Not wishes. You don't like the predictions, make them change by being active in your local elections.
As this stands, I still see Republicans holding the house. My prediction is for a 221-214 Majority, with Democrats picking up 11 seats. There will be no Democratic wave. I think many Democrat leaders have overreached gotten cocky. They've spread limited resources far too thin across too many districts and that is going to haunt them. Now, I may be wrong and the Democrats may pick up a Majority, but based on my review of individual districts, I think the highest that Majority might be would be 220-215. So regardless, we're going to have a lot of gridlock come 2007.
As for the Senate, I'm forced to make some tough predictions. As I see it now, Sens. Mike Dewine (R-Oh.), Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), Lincoln Chaffee, and Conrad Burns (R-Mt.) will all lose re-election. On the other hand, I think Sens. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) and George Allen (R-Va.) will win re-election, while Bob Corker (R-Tn.) will be the next Senator from Tennessee. The highlight for Republicans will be the victory of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in Maryland. The next Senate will have a net gain of 3 for the Democrats, leaving it at 52-48 majority for the GOP.
In Governor's races, Democrats will pick up New York, Maryland, Arkansas, Ohio, Massachusetts, and Colorado, while Republicans will scoop up Iowa, thus giving Democrats 26 of the nation's 50 State Houses, the first time Democrats have held a majority since 1994.
My prediction in races of local concern in Idaho:
Idaho Governor
Butch Otter (R)-53%
Jerry Brady (D)-45%
Others-2%
This will be tighter than some expected, but as Otter is an Idaho legend, I expect he'll pull it out in the end.
Idaho Superintendent
Tom Luna (R) 51%
Jana Jones (D) 49%
This will be very close, but I think reform to education will win on November 7th.
Idaho House District 1
Bill Sali (R)-52%
Larry Grant (D) -45%
Others-3%
The local media has done everything they can to destroy Mr. Sali, but despite the attempts of the local papers, Mr. Sali will emerge as Idaho's next congressman.
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