It Will Soon be Over
By Jan Larson (10/30/06)
In a little over a week, the great mid-term election of ’06 will be history. I, for one, will be glad to change the subject. I will also glad that the incessant phone calls pleading for donations will stop (at least for a while), the smear attack ads will cease and the pundits will move onto other subjects of speculation.
As it stands today, the Democrats will take control of the House and possibly the Senate. While Republicans are wailing at the prospect (and I’m not exactly thrilled by it either), it just might be the best thing to happen, politically speaking, for the next 15 or 20 years. It will not come without a price.
If the House and/or Senate switch to Democratic control, we will have two years to watch how the Dems govern. This could serve the GOP well in 2008, unless, of course the Dems are far-sighted enough to see the political danger in over-playing their hand. This, I doubt.
By just about any measure, the economy today is extremely robust, with unemployment holding steady in the 4.6% range, interest rates remaining low by historical standards and the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, near all-time highs.
Under Speaker Pelosi and/or Majority Leader Reid, we will see tax cuts rolled back and government spending increased (a GOP-controlled Congress would also increase spending, but that’s a separate issue). Economic policy under a Democrat-controlled Congress will certainly not favor the continuation of the current robust economy. In two years, this will be evident.
If, like some Democrats advocate, a Pelosi/Reid cabal sharply reduces or eliminates funding for the military in Iraq, a “cut-and-run” strategy in Iraq may be inevitable. If Iraq is a mess now, what will it be like in two years if the U.S. is either out or on our way out?
If the move to get out of Iraq picks up steam under a Democratic Congress, where will we stand with respect to Iran in two years? Will an emboldened Iran be closer to developing a nuclear weapon? Will they have one by then? Or, will a cowed Iran have given up their nuclear ambitions? I think we can all answer that question.
The appointments of to the federal judiciary will come to a virtual halt during the next two years if the Democrats gain control of the Senate. I don’t expect the President to change his strategy of judicial nominations, but getting them through the Senate will be a virtual impossibility. We will see the mother of all Supreme Court nomination battles should an opening on the Court occur in the next two years.
Social Security reform? Forget it. We’ll move two years closer to that inevitable train wreck. Tax reform? As far as the Democrats are concerned, the only thing wrong with the current tax system is that rates are too low. Border security? What borders?
On one hand, the price to be paid in the next two years if the Democrats gain control is a high price indeed, but on the other hand, if the Democrats do gain control, it will send a clear message to the GOP that they can no longer take their power for granted.
The GOP has no one to blame for its plight than itself. The GOP-led Congress did not implement desperately reforms in the Social Security program or with the tax system. The GOP-led Congress did little besides bloviate about border security. The GOP-led Congress led a spending spree that made a lot of Republicans wonder if the Dems weren’t already in control.
There are plenty of reasons why the GOP finds itself in this predicament, but if the Dems do gain control, we will all see just how well the Democrats can do and this might be the best thing that could happen for the GOP. In fact, it might be the best thing for all Americans.
Copyright ©2006 Jan A. Larson All rights reserved.
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