Syriaus Mistake
By Aaron Goldstein (11/23/06)
When the Iraq Study Group (ISG) releases its much anticipated report sometime before the end of 2006 it is widely believed that one of the key recommendations will be for the United States to enter into direct negotiations Iraq’s closest neighbors, Iran and Syria. The argument is that the presence of Iran and Syria at the negotiating table would help to quell violence in Iraq.
If the ISG makes such a recommendation President Bush must reject it out of hand. For the White House to entertain it would not only represent a major shift in foreign policy it would also legitimize terrorism as a form of acceptable political discourse.
It would be a serious mistake…no, a Syriaus mistake to engage the Asaad regime. Especially so because of the assassination of Lebanon’s Minister of Industry Pierre Amine Gemayel on November 21, 2006 – the day after Syria formally restored diplomatic ties with Iraq. Despite their official denials, this appears to have the Syrians fingerprints all over it.
Although Gemayel was only 34, he comes from Lebanon’s first family of politics and are arguably Lebanon’s most prominent Christians. His grandfather, Pierre, was a leader in Lebanon’s independence movement in the 1930s and 1940s and served in the Lebanese government in various cabinet posts until his death in 1984. Gemayel’s nephew, Bachir, was elected President in August 1982 only to be assassinated the following month shortly before he was to be sworn into office. Bachir successfully commanded Lebanese forces against Syrian occupation of Christian areas during the Hundred Days War in 1978. These efforts were clandestinely supported by Israel which did not endear him to Lebanese Muslims nor Syria and would ultimately lead to his demise, also at the age of 34. His older brother, Amine, would serve as Lebanon’s President between 1982 and 1988. Although seen by many as not having Bachir’s charisma and dynamism he did hand his political legacy of moderation down to son, Pierre, who was viewed as Prime Ministerial, if not Presidential material.
This might very well be precisely what the Syrians were afraid of in the long term. At the very least, the Syrians wanted to topple the Lebanese government. Freelance journalist and blogger Michael Totten pointed out that only hours after Gemayel was assassinated there was an assassination attempt on another anti-Syrian politician Michael Pharaon, the Minister of Parliamentary Affairs but Pharaon survived. Totten points out that if Pharaon had been assassinated the government would have collapsed. (www.michaeltotten.com) Pharaon, a Christian, is part of Saad Hariri’s parliamentary bloc. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, is the second eldest son of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese Prime Minister whose assassination in 2005 led to Lebanon’s Cedar Revolution and the official ousting of Syria from Lebanese territory.
The United Nations International Independent Investigation Commission is still conducting an inquiry into the Hariri assassination as per UN Security Council Resolution 1505. The initial report, written by German judge Detlev Mahlis, was presented to the UN Security Council in October 2005 (Mahlis has since been replaced by Belgian jurist Serge Brammertz). It implicated members of both the Syrian government and officials in the Lebanese government sympathetic to Syria. While Syrian President Bashar al-Asaad is not implicated, his security chief, Assef Shawkat is named in the report has involvement in Hariri’s assassination. It is believed that Hariri was assassinated because he opposed President Asaad’s extension of pro-Syrian Lebanese President’s Emile Lahoud’s term in office.
The report concludes:
Given the infiltration of Lebanese institutions and society by the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services working in tandem, it would be difficult to envisage a scenario whereby such a complex assassination plot could have been carried out without their knowledge. (www.un.org/news/dh/docs/mehlisreport/)
After the preliminary report was submitted, President Bush called upon the UN General Assembly to convene a special session to address the Hariri assassination. As of this writing, no such session has been convened.
It should be also noted that the Mehlis Report stated that Syrian officials had “cooperated to a limited degree.” However, the report also noted “several interviewees tried to mislead the investigation by giving false or inaccurate statements.” The report cites a letter submitted to the commission by Farouq al-Sharaa, then Syria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, that contained false information. In February 2006, only four months after the initial report was released, Asaad appointed al-Sharaa as Syria’s Vice President.
If the man who is now the Vice-President of Syria cannot be forthcoming with an investigation mandated by the UN Security Council then why should anyone believe that he, Asaad or any other official in the Syrian government would behave with candor in any negotiations with the United States concerning Iraq? I cannot emphasize this point enough. Negotiation with the Asaad regime would be a Syriaus mistake.
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