Escalating Iranian Expectations
By John A. Ross (02/08/07)
The Iranian Republican Guard, or Pasdaran, has a long history of vicious attacks against anything that is tied to America, or more commonly referred to by radical Islamic proxies as “The Great Satan.” Moving from random, albeit very calculated, attacks against American targets Iranian Republican Guards (IRGs) and American forces are in an escalating conflict. For example, detaining two small groups of IRG officers lead to the abduction and assassination of five American military personnel by well-placed Iraqi Shiites cooperating with the IRG. An investigation of a recent rash of American helicopter crashes in Iraq will probably reveal that Russian made missiles provided by the IRG are being used by insurgents, or Iranian proxies to kill our troops.
It must be assumed that the IRG leadership in Teheran will rely on their vicious tactics employed since the early 1980s and attack Iraqi targets that contain large numbers of Americans. A Hizbollah suicide bomber attack on a Beirut Marine barracks in 1983 killed 241 troops leading to America leaving Lebanon for the Iranians’ proxy to manipulate for nearly twenty years. Facing two carrier strike groups in the Persian Gulf, a NATO flotilla off of Lebanon, forces in Iraq with new rules of engagement and probably more UN sanctions, Iran’s Ayatollahs are on the brink of disaster.
Acutely aware, also, that a huge majority of Iranians detest their existence, the ruling Ayatollahs and Mullahs have recently moved their ill-gotten riches from Europe to South East Asian banks. Threatening to “wipe Israel off the map” and seen as a threat to Europe with their missile and nuclear development programs Iran’s Ayatollahs must be considered “armed and dangerous.” In this context, it must be assumed that the manipulating Ayatollahs will pursue brinkmanship, proxy attacks on Americans and, when all else fails, negotiations, prior to fleeing to their hoarded money.
Keeping their heads down until the fireworks start, the Iranian people have been waiting for years to remove the despotic ‘holy men’ that have brutalized and exploited Iran and it’s people for years. Having invented the game of chess, the Iranian people are expected to rise up against the two levers of power the Ayatollahs have used for almost 28 years to control and exploit Iran. It is anticipated that the ever-vicious IRG and Basiji religious units will be utilized by the Ayatollahs to maintain order, or provide enough cover for them to escape to South East Asia. Religious leaders associated with the Islamic Iranian Republic opting to stay in Iran by seeking asylum in their mosques will find their existence far more tenuous than under the Shah they deposed.
Convinced America’s mainstream media and press will provide the political cover they rely on to manipulate the world, Iran’s Ayatollahs and Mullahs have painted themselves into a corner. Up to their eyeballs in the Syrian and Hizbollah charade in Lebanon, caught sponsoring civil war in Iraq and the Palestinian conflict, Iran’s rulers have just about ran out of viable options. Caught between America and NATO, and China and Russia that wants their money and oil, Iran’s Shiite potentates have also scared the regional Sunnis into aligning themselves with the West. Armed with enough cash to buy Iran, Saudi Arabia has, uncharacteristically, also launched a full court press effort to convince Iran not to pursue brinkmanship and escalation with America.
When the fireworks start, Iranians should think ‘reciprocity’ because vengeance is an ugly word.
John Ross
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