Putin Highly Worried About US Missile Defense
By Kevin Roeten (03/10/07)
Just recently we've heard from the "Ol' Bear", Vladimir Putin. Now running the country of Russia(not USSR), we've seen belligerency, mistrust, suspicion, rhetoric, outbursts, and threats. Things one would not want to hear from a leader from a formerly highly powerful country. But most assuredly, Putin does not like missile defense. Putin earlier lambasted US foreign policy as destabilizing, and threatening world peace.
On 6/13/02, the US formally withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile(ABM) Treaty. Forget that the ABM dissolved the day the USSR ceased to exist, or that Russia maintains a missile defense capability for Moscow, or that they have cooperated with ‘rogue’ states like Iran on nuclear and missile technology. But it almost seemed as though Russian leaders acquiesced in the face of American plans for ballistic missile defense(BMD). Russia’s opposition to these US’s plans cannot be overstated, however.
Bush pledged to unilaterally reduce American nuclear arsenals in conjunction with the pursuit of BMD. Bush also announced plans to the Russians that the US would go ahead with BMD six months prior to withdrawing from the ABM treaty.
Just lately, Secretary of State Condolezza Rice rejected a threat by General Solovtsov(commander/ Russia’s strategic forces) against Poland and the Czech Republic as future hosts of a US missile shield: “I think it is unfortunate that the Russian head of strategic rocket forces would come out and say that somehow Poland and the Czech Republic would now be on the target list of Russia.” Rice states that their were at least 10 formal contacts with the Russians about missile defense deployment, as well as several informal discussions with Russian officials, and briefings of the NATO-Russia Council. But Putin continues to insinuate that the West is still trying to squeeze and intimidate Russia.
Why does Putin threaten American allies to prevent them from defending themselves? Some reports have Moscow saying that Poland and the Czech Republic would be attacked should they go ahead with this deployment. It is known that an allied missile defense system in the Poles’ or Czech’s hands could not stop a full Russian attack.
Unfortunately[Frank Gaffney(TownHall)], Putin is actually arming America’s actual or potential foes. The list of recent transactions include: selling anti-aircraft weapons to Iran, state-of-the-art missiles, planes, ships, and other offensive hardware to China, and over 100,000 AK-47s to Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela.
Julianne Smith(Director/ Strategic and International Studies), attended a Munich forum and listened to Putin directly and commented: “The Russians are working hard to create this beautifully constructed, conspiracy-laden narrative that the West is on a mission to encircle them and weaken their global influence.”
Bottom line--Moscow opposes having a missile shield in its former backyard, says they will target its territory, and believes such a move is a threat to national security. It is believed that Russia fears that BMD might actually work, thus negating Russia’s ability to strike back in the event of a US nuclear first strike. Russia is likely thinking that their second-strike capability may be as small as ‘tens’ of weapons, and that their deterrent arsenal could be checkmated by America’s BMD. Someone’s thinking about ‘second strike’ capabilities?
First, Bush went to great lengths to assure Russia that they would not be considered an ‘enemy’. Second, the US argued that the US and Russia faced similar missile threats from ‘rogue’ states, terrorist groups, and other adversaries with WMD’s, and thus had a mutual interest in cooperation with BMD. Third, US accurately pointed out that the Russian rocket forces could easily overwhelm ‘limited’ American missile defenses with the inconceivable task of intercepting thousands of ICBMs, and was no threat to Russian deterrence.
Though Russian doubting continued, they were sympathetic to the claim that “9/11” was a strong rational for the development of BMD. But hidden Russian worries seemed to revolve around economic pressures dictating that that there may not be “thousands” of rockets available to penetrate American defenses. Or another: Russia needs arms control because it simply cannot afford to maintain thousands of nuclear warheads it inherited from the former USSR.
Knowing that BMD is defensive only, that the US would like to incorporate as many countries as possible in a protective ‘umbrella’, and that eliminating the possibility of a nuclear strike by anyone would significantly reduce or eliminate funds to build nuclear weapons, should be a clear message to anyone.
However, it is likely that the sleeping ‘Bear’ has awakened from his hibernation. For mobility, it needs food, however. Bush knows what Russia can do. But Putin likely also knows that Bush will proceed with his plans of BMD. But Bush knows this as well. A full confrontation is not likely. However, depending upon who gets elected as US president in ’08, all bets may be off.
Kevin Roeten
http://kevinroeten.us/
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