The Buck Showalter Effect: My Predictions for the 2007 Major League Baseball Season
By Aaron Goldstein (04/01/07)
A year ago, I wrote an article (1) and audaciously predicted that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would win the 2006 World Series. The Devil Rays would finish the 2006 season with a 60-102 won loss record; the worst record in Major League Baseball last season.
At the time that I wrote the article it was initially believed to be an April Fools’ Day joke. But when it became clear that I was being serious questions were raised about my mental health and general well being were raised ( [url=http://raysindex.blogspot.com/2006/04/upon-further-review-aaron-goldstein.html]http://raysindex.blogspot.com/2006/04/upon-further-review-aaron-goldstein.html[/url] ).
Given how spectacularly wrong I was in placing my eggs in the D’Rays rickety basket one would think that I would refrain from making such predictions in the future.
Nonsense.
Making predictions about baseball or anything else is a hit or miss proposition. Sure there are a lot more misses than hits. But I’ve had a few. Yet even when I am right I don’t always go 4 for 4. When the Chicago White Sox acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik from the Milwaukee Brewers prior to the 2005 season I told anyone who would listen that the Chisox were going to the World Series. Now remember I said I predicted the Chisox would reach the World Series. I didn’t think they would win it. I thought the Chisox would be beaten by the St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, the Chisox won the 2005 World Series sweeping the Houston Astros in four games. It should be noted that the Astros narrowly defeated the Cardinals in that year’s National League Championship Series. So I went 2 for 3 with a walk.
This season I am setting my eyes on the Texas Rangers because of the Buck Showalter effect. So who is Buck Showalter and what is his effect? After the 2006 season, Showalter was fired as manager of the Rangers and replaced by Ron Washington, who previously was the third base coach for the Oakland Athletics. A number of people have made this observation about Showalter. Whenever Showalter has left a managerial post the team goes on to win the World Series the following season.
In 1995, Showalter guided the New York Yankees to the American League Wild Card. They would lose to the Seattle Mariners, however, in the American League Division Series. Showalter then left the Yankees to accept the managerial post with the Arizona Diamondbacks although they would not come into the National League until 1998. Showalter was replaced by Joe Torre who in 1996 led the Yankees to their first World Series championship since 1978. Torre, of course, would be at the helm for three more World Series championships from 1998 through 2000.
During this same period Showalter managed the Diamondbacks. He took them to the post season in 1999 where they would lose to the New York Mets in the National League Division Series courtesy a walk off homerun by journeyman catcher Todd Pratt off Matt Mantei. After failing to reach the postseason in 2000, Showalter was fired by the Diamondbacks and replaced by former major league catcher and broadcaster Bob Brenly. In 2001, the Diamondbacks would defeat the Yankees in seven exhilarating games capped off by Luis Gonzalez’s single off Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the ninth to win their franchise’s first Fall Classic.
Showalter managed the Rangers from 2003 through 2006 and failed to reach the postseason. There are many who wonder if fortune will smile on Washington as it did with Torre and Brenly. I believe it will and I am predicting that the Texas Rangers will win the 2007 World Series prevailing over the Houston Astros in the first all Texas Fall Classic. Rest assured I believe the Rangers will get their moment in the sun for reasons other than Showalter’s departure.
But let me tell you how I arrived at this conclusion. The following are my predictions of the standings for the East, Central and Western Divisions of the American League and National League. Included are my predictions for each league’s Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player winners.
Post Season Predictions
American League Division Series (best three out of five games) – New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers. Rangers win 3-2.
American League Division Series (best three out of five games) – Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics. Athletics win 3-2.
American League Championship Series (best four out of seven games) – Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics. Rangers win 4-2.
National League Division Series (best three out of five games) – Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers. Astros win 3-1.
National League Division Series (best three out of five games) – Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs. Cubs win 3-1.
National League Championship Series (best four out of seven games) – Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs. Astros win 4-3.
2007 World Series – Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros (best four out of seven games). Rangers win 4-2.
So there you have it. There are my predictions for Major League Baseball in 2007. We’ll see how I did in October. In the meantime, let’s enjoy some baseball.
1) http://americandaily.com/article/12786
(Printer friendly version) Email: Aaron Goldstein
