'Could Netanyahu Be Poised For A Comeback?'
By Aaron Goldstein (05/04/07)
Ehud Olmert's time as Israel's Prime Minister could be measured in days, if not hours. He is under fire after the release of Winograd Report which examined Israel's shortcomings during the first five days of last summer's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The report harshly criticized Olmert’s efforts as a "severe failure". For his part, Olmert has said he will not resign. But in light of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni calling on Olmert to resign it seems that the writing is on the wall. If Olmert doesn't leave of his own accord he will likely be forced out. And don't be surprised if Livni is chosen to succeed him as the new leader of Kadima and Israel's second female Prime Minister.
Although Livni cannot be tied directly to Israel’s failures in Lebanon she is still part of the cabinet and government that failed to serve Israel in a time of a war. Livni, like Olmert, is also interested in pursuing the so-called Saudi peace initiative that would give Israel recognition in exchange for all lands won during the 1967 Six Day War and the right of return for Palestinians. These are terms not likely to be acceptable to most Israelis and if Livni is perceived to back those terms she won’t be acceptable to the Israeli electorate.
The Labor Party is arguably in even more disarray than Olmert and Kadima. Its leader, Amir Peretz, continues to serve as Defense Minister despite Israel’s failures in Lebanon. Peretz will likely be ousted as Labor Party chief at the end of this month. Selecting a new leader might prove to be a bitter fight. On one hand there is Ami Ayalon, the former head of Israel’s domestic intelligence service, Shin Bet. On the other is Ophir Pines-Paz who resigned from the Olmert cabinet last October over the addition of Avigdor Lieberman to the cabinet. Pines-Paz believes Lieberman to be anti-Arab. Then you have the wild card of former Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Whatever the outcome there will be a lot of bruised egos which will not likely be sufficiently healed to fight an election.
This leaves former Prime Minister and current Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu with a huge opening. Critics, of course, will point to his tenure as Prime Minister between 1996 and 1999 where he fell out of favor with the Israeli electorate and was defeated by Barak at the polls. But much has happened in the eight years since Netanyahu lost power – the failure of the Camp David Accords, suicide bombers, the construction of the security fence, withdrawal of settlements, complete withdrawal from Gaza, rocket attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers and the ensuing war last summer. And lest we forget the threat from Iran. Whatever Netanyahu’s past sins I believe they are largely forgotten now. Given Olmert’s ineptitude, Livni’s opportunism and Labor’s uncertainty, Netanyahu doesn’t look so bad.
Should Netanyahu prevail at the polls it will go to show that a year in politics is an eternity. It is worth remembering in the March 2006 elections Likud won only 12 seats finishing in a tie for third place with the religious party Shas. It represented Likud’s worst showing since its founding in 1973. A victory for Likud only a year removed from being routed would be a remarkable reversal of fortune. For Netanyahu, it would be arguably the biggest comeback in Israeli politics perhaps one even bigger than that of the late Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon.
In the United States, a Netanyahu victory might provoke shudders amongst a Democratic controlled Congress and to a lesser extent within the Bush Administration. But Netanyahu proved willing to negotiate with the late Yasser Arafat on the Wye River Accords in 1997. Of course, given Wye River’s (and indeed the Oslo Accords) lack of success, Netanyahu might not be so eager to negotiate with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas never mind Hamas. Nor should he. Netanyahu must be cautious and prudent where it concerns the Palestinians.
Ehud Olmert was a good mayor of Jerusalem but was less to the task as Prime Minister. His lack of military experience (as well as Peretz’s) proved to be his Achilles heel. Given their lackluster performance in last summer’s war, Israeli voters are not likely to feel confident supporting either Olmert’s or Peretz’s eventual successors. Whatever Netanyahu’s shortcomings, Israelis know what they are going to get and it won’t be more of the same. Should Bibi Netanyahu be given a second chance Israel will have a Prime Minister far more focused and prepared to deal with the Palestinians, Iran and the day to day security issues that no one else in the civilized world face.
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