Stuart Rothenberg, From Free Congress to Impressive Political Analyst
By Paul M. Weyrich (06/19/07)
Bad news for the Republicans. Stu says the Democrats will continue to hold the House. Stu who? Stuart Rothenberg, that’s who. So who is Stu and what does he know a year and a half from the next Congressional election? Let me explain. In 1975 I began to put out the weekly political report. It was meant to be temporary but our supporters at Free Congress Foundation loved it so I was stuck with it. It became too much of a burden so in due course I hired Susan Marshner to take that burden off of me. She did but she needed help. So I told her to get somebody else. She advertised and conducted a lot of interviews. Alas, she told me she had found the ideal candidate. He was a political science professor from Bucknell University, Hire him, I told her, before he gets away. She did. That was a mere 27 years ago. This guy, it turned out, was fantastic.
He wrote more accurate copy than anyone we had ever known. In due course, Susan left to marry and she left this Stu fellow in charge of the Political Report.
He did such a good job that the reputation of the publication grew and grew. Flash ahead several years. Stu said he wanted to move out on his own. He would try to make a living by selling subscriptions to his political report. Wow, I thought—a gutsy move. If anybody could do it Stu could. The publication had built such a good reputation under his direction that I hoped he could translate that into support for his own publication. He called it the Rothenberg Political Report, distinguishing it from other publications. That wasn’t the last we saw of Stu. When we launched our television network in late 1992, I asked him if he would do an hourly show. He did the funniest, most clever program ever on television. I hope he never charges us for producing that show. He had the able assistance of Stephen M. Lilienthal, whose deadpan expression masked an unusual mind. But I digress. Stu not only made it on his own but he became one of the nation’s most prominent political pundits.
Stu still publishes his weekly Rothenberg Political Report. When it comes to our office I am not allowed to see it for a couple of days while everyone else digests it first. We all read it because we want to know what is going on in the world of elections and politics.
Stu has been more accurate in his predictions than anyone else I know. It is amazing—or perhaps it is not so amazing when you consider the work he puts into his publication week after week. Of course he has help but he is the boss who sifts through all the material and goes out on a limb.
Stu has looked at all of the House of Representative races in play, both Democratic and Republican. At first it appeared as if the Democrats were doing so well that one could expect major gains in 2008. However, Rothenberg now believes there are a few cracks in their wall. He believes that, while the Republicans might win a few seats next year, the Democrats will still be in control of the House.
That is bad news for the Republicans. They have targeted enough races to enable them to win the majority they lost in 2006. Rothenberg says it won’t happen. You can take that to the bank.
But, you say, the polls suggest that the rating of Congress is worse than that of President George W. Bush. And that is pretty low. True enough. If you break down those polls you would find that what makes the rating of the Congress so low is dissatisfaction of the Democratic base.
All Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senator Harry M. Reid (D-NV) need is to pass some legislation and it doesn’t matter if Bush vetoes it, as long as they get things done they are okay. They have enough House Members to pass almost anything. Forget all that stuff you read about those conservative Democrats. There are not enough of them to make a difference.
In the Senate, on the war, which is what those low ratings are all about, they have the help of quite a few Republicans. If they are reasonable maybe they can raise the sixty votes necessary to get almost anything through the Senate. Remember that the Democrats have only a one-vote margin in the Senate.
There are sufficient Democrats and Republicans who want to vote for the Immigration Bill that if the filibuster were overcome it would pass. It just isn’t clear at this point who wants the measure to be considered again.
Anyway, returning to the main subject, those poor Republicans have so many Members whom the FBI is investigating that, guilty or not, the damage has been done.
Unless all of those House Republicans were to be specifically cleared those seats most likely would switch parties. Certainly the Democrats have their problems, William Jefferson (D-LA) and his cold cash for one. But there is an imbalance. The Democrats have one or two in trouble. The Republicans have at least seven, maybe more.
Even if a few freshmen Democrats have voted with their leadership and not their district, there are not enough to compensate for those Republicans who are in trouble. And as Rothenberg has pointed out, the Democrats have managed to come up with credible candidates in Republican districts so that the GOP now has to defend more districts than otherwise.
I recall Stu when he was about the only pundit to see the Democratic trouble in 1994. And for the next five elections he correctly predicted that the Republican majority would remain intact.
He saw trouble for the Republicans in 2006. That’s why when he says the Democrats will hold the House I listen. Certainly it is early and the Republican propaganda tells you otherwise. I’ll go with Stu anytime.
Something big could happen to change the situation. Were that to occur Rothenberg would say so. Thus, if a year from now he sees something that would allow Republicans to re-take the House you will hear it from Stu. Why? Because for 27 years he has had his ear to the ground. He knows what is happening. Barring that unlikely development, you can safely predict that the Democrats will retain control of the House, regardless of the Presidential election. If you are asked how you know, tell your questioner that Stu told you.
Paul M. Weyrich is Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Foundation.
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