Political Forces Shaping The '08 Elections
By Christopher Adamo (07/12/07)
So far, the political landscape preceding the 2008 Presidential Election has
defied every attempt by the "old media" to characterize and thus determine
its outcome. Were the original media prognostications correct, at least two
thirds of the American public would already be lining up at the ballot box,
eagerly awaiting the starting bells in order to joyously cast votes for
Hillary.
The reality for the former First Lady is not nearly so rosy. A recent
Mason-Dixon poll showed that more than half of Americans say they will not
vote for her “under any circumstances.” As a result, her anticipated cake
walk of the Democrat primary season has devolved into a very rocky road,
with Freshman Senator Barack Obama (D.-Ill.) nipping at her heals in every
major survey.
Worse yet, former Vice-President Al Gore continues to enjoy a groundswell of
enthusiastic support from the Democrat base, even though he has yet to
officially declare his candidacy. It is certain that, behind closed doors,
Democrat strategists are being strained to their limits by the maddening
uncertainty of the present situation.
Despite Democrat gloating over last November’s elections, the current
situation is absolutely grim in the Congress, where the approval rating for
that body, at a pitiful fourteen percent, is lower than it has ever been.
Congressional numbers have not approached such lows since the early 1990’s
which, not coincidentally, was the last time the Democrats held a majority.
On the Republican side, the “conventional wisdom” has fared no better. Only
a few months ago it was all but predetermined that the Republican
presidential nominee would be Arizona Senator John McCain, Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney or former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Yet the mere
indication by former Republican Senator Fred Thompson of his interest in
running resulted in a shift of tectonic proportions within the GOP.
Thompson’s nearly spontaneous popularity has left the other candidates
scrambling in efforts to maintain their respective pieces of the pie. And
with the presumed inevitability of his announcement and likely advancement
to the status of “frontrunner,” the former Tennessee Senator is beginning to
feel the heat of the universally adverse and monotonously predictable media
coverage.
So far, Thompson remains impervious to such attacks, and indeed actually
stands to gain from them as long as he remains true to the ideologies which
he has been loudly professing in recent months. The latest assault, based on
an accusation that he was somehow involved in a lobbying effort on behalf of
pro-abortion forces, may yet prove to be just another “dud” projectile being
fired at him.
While certainly not flawless as either a conservative or a presidential
candidate, Thompson shows every sign of being fully capable of weathering
this storm. In truth, the very nature of the current controversy may say far
more about his critics, and their disingenuous sermonizing to the public,
than it does about Thompson.
Consider, first of all, that those making the most noise are clearly in the
political camp of the opposition. Does anyone really believe these liberals
are trying to help Thompson? Clearly, they recognize that, were his pro-life
track record to be seriously called into question, much of the current
enthusiasm for his candidacy would be undermined.
Curiously, in the past, they have incessantly claimed that being pro-life is
an enormous political negative, since a “majority” of both parties
ostensibly favor abortion. Yet now they seek to cost Thompson his support on
the basis that his pro-life record has a blemish on it, albeit an extremely
minor one in comparison to that of virtually all of the rest of the field.
So perhaps supporting the sanctity of life is not such a fatal defect to a
candidacy.
Furthermore, by clearly making the case that Thompson may lose support over
this issue, they highlight the certain fate that would befall Giuliani or
Romney, were either to win the nomination.
If tying him in such an oblique manner to the abortion lobby could disaffect
Thompson supporters, what could Democrats do to Giuliani or Romney, both of
whom have staunchly supported partial birth abortion, gay rights, along with
the rest of the liberal cultural agenda?
Ultimately, the battle lines have remained unchanged for the past several
decades. The conservatism that bolstered American confidence and stature,
and that served Ronald Reagan so well during the eighties, still resonates
with the American public.
It also propelled Republicans in the Senate and House to majority status for
a dozen years, starting in 1994. Republican fortunes only changed last fall
when it became obvious that they had abandoned such thinking.
Contrary to the constant drum beat of “conventional wisdom” asserting that
the ’06 electoral upset resulted from public disenchantment with the Iraq
war, every indication before and since last November suggests otherwise.
In the recent past, Republicans have done well in congressional elections,
just so long as their conservatism was starkly contrasted against the
banalities of the American left. Once that divide dissipated, so did any
support from the “grassroots.”
The dynamics of the impending presidential race, as well as the
congressional re-match of next year, are no different. Democrats, riding a
crest of false confidence, are doing a thorough job of parading their true,
leftist and anti-American colors. Thus GOP prospects improve, and rest
largely on the possibility that Republican “moderates” in Congress do not
sabotage the conservative movement through cowardice and pragmatism.
If he continues to boldly define the political landscape, Fred Thompson
could not only win big, but his vocal advocacy of the conservative message,
contrasted against the liberal nuttiness of Reid/Pelosi and their party’s
presidential candidate, may yield significant Republican gains in both
houses.
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