National Intelligence Estimate Chaos
By Doug Edelman (12/06/07)
As could easily be predicted, the recently released National Intelligence Estimate is being seen as blood in the water for the sharks on the Left. After spending months creating the straw-man specter of an imminent invasion of Iran, the NIE is being cited as evidence that Iran is no threat and that the Bush Administration was about to start another war in a "Bush Lied" scenario!
But apart from the fact that there was no imminent attack plan for Iran in the first place – why isn’t anyone noticing the inherent hypocrisy of the left as regards the NIE? It was the National Intelligence Estimate of the time the Bush RELIED UPON in his policy toward going into Iraq! Yet that NIE was later shown to be incorrect… and Bush was excoriated for using it as a justification for war. Now suddenly the NIE is gospel truth, when it suits the agenda of the Left! Can they have it both ways? NIE was unreliable and should not have been used by Bush in 2003… but it is definitively reliable, proof positive today that Iran represents “no threat” four years later?
Of course, the Left emphasizes that the NIE indicates Iran had “discontinued” development of weapons-grade nuclear technology. But they conveniently neglect the fact that the NIE does acknowledge that Iran IS still developing nuclear technologies. They HAVE added centrifuges. They ARE enriching uranium… it’s just commercial grade enriched uranium as opposed to highly enriched weapons-grade uranium. As if that represents no threat!
Frankly, if I were Mr. “I’m-a-gonna-Jihad”, this is exactly the tactic I would take! I could acquire a stockpile of low-grade enriched uranium while being declared by the American Left to be no threat, as I’m producing “peaceful use” nuclear material. Those who opposed my adding centrifuges and other “dual use” technologies would be cast as bullies and I’d be viewed as a victim of the Bush Regime! But at a time of my choosing, I could use those Leftist Approved dual-use technologies to further refine that already acquired low-grade fuel into weapons-grade material in short order and with no way to stop me - short of bombing the facilities in time!
Frankly, for either the Left or the Right to hang their hat on the NIE is a mistake. One must bear in mind exactly what the National Intelligence Estimate IS!
First, and of primary importance, is the fact that it is an ESTIMATE! It is not like we have human assets on the ground in Iran feeding direct intelligence. It is the human analysts BEST GUESS based on their analysis of the available indirect data. We all know and acknowledge that this guesstimate was wrong in the case of Iraq in 2003.
Secondly, the intelligence in the NIE is aging by the time it is gathered, compiled, analyzed, interpreted, documented and published. There is inherently a significant lag between what is happening in real-time and the intelligence found in the estimate. What was true at the time the intelligence was gathered may no longer be the case by the time it’s published! Intelligence has a short shelf life!
This lag as applies to the National Intelligence Estimate can be in excess of a full year! And no wonder. Remember, the National Intelligence Estimate contains assessments of not only the regions hot in the news like Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and such. It will also contain intelligence analysis of Peru and Paraguay. Again, digesting all the raw data into a presentable estimate on such a broad scale is naturally time intensive.
One must remember, as they approach their understanding of the NIE, that it is little more than a guideline; the white lines at the shoulders of the Interstate. There are six lanes of latitude where the actual car might be found.
The Bush Administration was wrong and foolish to hang so much of their credibility on the NIE in 2003. The Left would be wrong and fooling to hang theirs on the NIE in 2007.
Copyright © 2007 by Doug Edelman
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