The Tampa Bay Rays Shine Bright So Far in 2008
By Aaron Goldstein (07/10/08)
“You were a year off.”
Well, actually it is two years. But this is the constant refrain I have heard from people concerning the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays (formerly known as the Devil Rays).
For those who do not know, prior to the 2006 season I predicted Tampa Bay would win the World Series. (www.americandaily.com/article/12786) Not only did Tampa Bay not win the World Series they finished with the worst record in MLB. They had the worst record in MLB in 2007 as well. Although the Rays have a highly touted minor league system, there was little reason to believe things would be radically different in 2008. Even I thought the Rays would finish 2008 with a .500 record. (http://newsbyus.com/more.php?idf11468_O_I_O_M)
However, as of this writing, the Tampa Bay Rays own the best record in MLB with a 55-35 record. They lead the defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox by two games and the New York Yankees by 6 and a half games in the American League East. With less than a week to go before the 2008 All Star Game, nobody (and I mean nobody) thought the Rays would be in this position.
So what has changed in two short years?
Well, let’s begin with what has remained constant. Joe Maddon is in his third year as the Rays manager. Scott Kazmir is still the ace of the starting rotation and the New York Mets hate being reminded of it to no end. Carl Crawford is a speedy, solid hitter with a good glove in the outfield. That was a good foundation but the other parts weren’t there in 2006 but they are in 2008. Those other parts are a combination of prospects living up to their potential and smart acquisitions that have resulted in journeyman players being given a chance to play regularly and make a contribution.
Scott Kazmir now finds himself accompanied by four other exciting young starting pitchers – James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza, who was acquired from the Twins in the off season. The starting rotation has accounted for 36 of the team’s 55 wins so far in 2008. Sonnanstine has 10 wins while Kazmir, Shields and Garza each have 7 and Jackson with 5.
In previous seasons, Tampa Bay had a bullpen that was even worse than some of its starting rotations and they would lose many of their games after the 7th inning. However, Troy Percival has answered the bell saving 19 games. This from a guy who just over a year ago who had retired from MLB to become a minor league pitching instructor for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Surrounding Percival are the likes of Australian native Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell, Al Reyes and Trever Miller. Catcher Dioner Navarro is coming into his own as a catcher learning how to call a game. Navarro is also having his best offensive season with a .317 batting average.
Carl Crawford is fast but B.J. Upton might be even faster. They make for a speedy outfield and both know how to get on base and move along them with 23 and 27 stolen bases, respectively. Evan (Don’t Call Me Eva) Longoria is a likely AL Rookie of the Year candidate leading the team with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs. Longoria also plays a stellar third base. Stellar enough to force Japanese import Akinori Iwamura to move to second base. Yet Iwamura has taken to second base like duck to water. Iwamura makes a good double play partner with shortstop Jason Bartlett who was acquired from the Twins along with starting pitcher Matt Garza. Bartlett is also a decent runner with 18 steals.
Several players have found a new lease on life with the Rays. First baseman Carlos Pena’s renaissance actually began with the Rays in 2007. Pena had bounced around with several major league organizations this decade including the Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Indeed, I saw Pena play at the Futures at Fenway game in 2006 with the Pawtucket Red Sox and hit a long homerun. Pena had hit as many as 27 homeruns with the Tigers in 2004 but his productivity declined precipitously afterward. In 2007, Pena hit a career high 46 homeruns and drove in 121 runs with a respectable .282 average. While Pena probably won’t reach those numbers in 2008 he has hit 13 homeruns and driven in 46 runs despite missing 22 games due to a broken finger.
Eric Hinske might be the Carlos Pena of 2008. Hinske won the AL Rookie of the Year in 2002 with the Toronto Blue Jays. However, in subsequent seasons he never could replicate his earlier successes. By the time Hinske joined the Boston Red Sox late in the 2006 season he was relegated to being a bench player. However, Hinske is having his best season since 2002 with 14 homeruns and 45 RBI and a decent .264 batting average. Hinske has played a variety of positions including third base, first base, right field, left field as well as designated hitter.
Another player who has blossomed in Tampa Bay is outfielder Gabe Gross. A onetime college quarterback with the Auburn Tigers, Gross chose to play baseball instead of football and was a first round draft pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2001. However, Gross had done little to distinguish himself in stints with the Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers from 2004 through 2007. Early in the 2008 season, with Gross getting little playing time in a crowded outfield in Milwaukee, Tampa Bay acquired him for pitching prospect Josh Butler. While Gross hasn’t enjoyed the same production as Hinske or Pena he has got timely hits and 9 of his 21 RBI have either tied games or have given the Rays the lead. On three of those occasions, a Gross base hit has won the Rays a ballgame. Gross might only be hitting .237 but he makes his hits count.
Will the Rays win the 2008 World Series? Despite the progress they have made there is no guarantee they will make the post-season.
The Rays have five challenges in their remaining 72 games.
First, it should be noted the Rays have played 50 of their first 90 games at Tropicana Field. Of their remaining 72 games, 41 will be on the road. That’s sixty per cent of their games. While the Rays are 36-14 at home they are 19-21 away from Tropicana Field. Most teams have losing records on the road but with such a high proportion of games being played away from Tropicana the Rays have little margin for error. To be fair, the Yankees play 39 of their remaining 71 games on the road. However, the Yankees are 22-20 on the road this season. They are the only AL team with a winning road record and only the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals play better on the road in MLB. The Boston Red Sox, on the other hand, play 37 of their final 68 games at Fenway Park. You do the math.
Second, there’s the competition. American League East is a very competitive division with the Red Sox and Yankees playing good baseball as previously mentioned. Don’t count out the surprising Baltimore Orioles either. The Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers and the Minnesota Twins are also potential competitors for the AL Wild Card spot should the Rays fall out of first in the AL East.
Third, will the innings catch up with the Rays starting rotation in September? Only Kazmir and Shields have thrown more than 200 innings in a season and they did that in 2007. As of this writing, Garza has never thrown 100 innings in a season. How will they hold up against the Red Sox with the likes of Josh Beckett and Daisuke “Dice-K” Matsuzaka or the Yankees with Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte?
Fourth, despite Percival’s success he has now been on the disabled list twice due to a hamstring pull. For the time being the Rays have gone to a bullpen by committee and Balfour, Howell and Wheeler have been saving games. But if Percival can’t answer the bell is this a long term solution? Or do they go out and get a closer like Brian Fuentes from the Colorado Rockies or even MLB all time saves leader and future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman from the San Diego Padres? Both Fuentes and the 40-year-old Hoffman have had their struggles this year so it would be a risk.
Fifth, then there are the catwalks. Despite their success at home there are four catwalks throughout Tropicana Field that support the structure of the facility and hang above the outfield. They are in play and can be obstacles in taking hits away or in allowing home runs. While the catwalks themselves are neutral and the Rays could benefit from them as much as the visiting team they could very well prove to be a factor whether the Rays reach the postseason or how far they advance in it.
Notwithstanding the challenges the Rays face over the final two and a half months of the season as of right now the Tampa Bay Rays have shined brightly and are indisputably the biggest story of the 2008 MLB season. Have the Rays peaked only to set? Or have the Rays still yet to emerge from the horizon? One only needs to look at the sky and the box score to find out.
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