Are Americans Smarter than they Look? ...Understanding Voters...
By JB Williams (07/20/08)
Understanding American voter sentiments heading into the 2008 Election cycle is no easy task. Voters seem to be all over the board on how they feel about the issues, the candidates, and what they think we should do about each issue is even stranger.
In studying current Rasmussen Report detailed numbers, Americans seem to struggle with remaining on task all the way through their thought processes. Many voter positions appear quite counter-indicated, contradictory and even downright confusing, or should I say, confused.
Obama and McCain are clearly in a dead heat statistical tie in the race for the White House. When studying the underlying voter sentiments on the issues, the level of confusion in the electorate may explain why.
Here are some interesting key Rasmussen numbers… (survey respondents were weighted +10% Democrat)
79% of Americans polled, say that they believe the nation is “on the wrong track,” whatever that means. When asked how they feel about the individual branches of government in this regard, they give the Judicial Branch (Supreme Court) only a 34% approval rating, the Executive Branch (the president) only a 33% approval rating, and the Legislative Branch (congress) only a 9% approval rating.
Clearly, voters think all three branches of government are “on the wrong track,” none more so than the Democrat controlled congress, which a record 91% of the people polled, believe to be off track.
Yet voters seem very confused about how to address any of these concerns.
The Economy (which voters claim the most important issue of the election)
Voters say they lean slightly in favor of Democrat Barack Obama on the economy, 43% to McCain’s 41%. But the devil is in the details here.
* Nobody said McCain was too inexperienced for the job, but 41% believe that Obama is too inexperienced.
* Only 36% said Obama was the “better leader” as opposed to 46% who said McCain was the “better leader.”
* 46% believe Obama is a “big government solutions” spender, and 51% said they believed government spending would increase under Obama.
* Nobody thought McCain was a “big government” guy and only 29% believe federal spending would increase under McCain.
* Only 18% believed that either candidate would “decrease” federal spending.
In short, voters seem to feel better about Obama on the economy, but they don’t seem to know why. 41% say he’s too inexperienced for the job, 46% say McCain is the better leader, and 46% believe that Obama will increase federal spending, which will make it hard to balance any budget or return freedom to the people. But they like him anyway…
On Taxes
43% of respondents say taxes will go up under Obama, compared to 23% who say taxes will go up under McCain. That’s in line with the 51% that believe Obama will grow government compared to 29% that believe McCain will also grow government.
In an April ’08 Gallup poll, 52% of Americans said they think federal taxes are already “too high” compared to only 2% who said taxes were “too low.”
When CNN recently asked voters if the Bush’s “tax relief” plan (stimulus package) did enough, only 13% said yes while 82% said the tax relief was “not enough.”
Still, voters seem to favor the candidate they believe most likely to grow government and raise taxes. Why?
Tied on several issues
McCain and Obama are tied on several key issues.
McCain-Obama: Trust on Issues McCain Obama
Energy 44% 44%
Ethics 42% 44%
Iraq 43% 44%
Immigration 38% 37%
Social Security 42% 44%
Abortion 36% 38%
Iraq
Iraq is a very interesting subject. Only 40% of Americans say winning in Iraq is an important priority. 54% say that bringing American troops home is a greater priority. Voters seem to favor running over winning.
Yet, 44% trust Obama on Iraq and 43% trust McCain on Iraq, even though Iraq represents an issue where the two have diametrically opposing views.
Again, voters seem to slightly favor the candidate with no military or national security experience, who has never even been to Iraq or met with commanders in charge of Iraq, I suppose because no particular expertise is needed just to cut-n-run.
National Security and the War on Terror
This subject is a clear advantage for McCain. Only 48% of respondents believe that we are “winning the war on terror,” and only 45% believe that America is “safer than before 9/11,” which indicates that most believe there is much more work to be done.
As a result, 53% say they trust McCain to better handle issues of National Security and the War on Terror, compared to only 39% who trust Obama.
Although 58% say they want American troops home within the next year, the vast majority of respondents trust McCain, who promises not to bring them home “too soon,” as opposed to Obama who promises to bring them home without ever meeting with commanders in Iraq.
This is an area where Obama’s lack of experience is costing him support, and where McCain’s experience is a clear advantage. Even though most Americans want their troops home as soon as possible, it appears that they are concerned with the conditions in which they are withdrawn from combat.
This explains Obama’s upcoming trip to Iraq, and his effort to create the appearance that he is willing to at least consider facts on the ground, even though he has already committed himself to a policy position without benefit of such first hand knowledge or experience.
Obama has a problem here… If he returns from Iraq without changing his position, he will appear to ignore the facts on the ground that he allegedly traveled to learn. If he changes his position after learning the facts on the ground, he will appear foolish for establishing a position before learning the topic, and appear weak to his constituents for once again “flip-flopping” on the anti-war the core of his support base.
This could be the issue to cost Obama the election… I’m always surprised that 100% of Americans don’t want their troops home ASAP. Of course we do - what a silly question. At what price? Before or after they complete the missions we sent them to accomplish, the missions they want to complete?
Obama’s Strengths
Whereas McCain has a clear advantage in the arena of national security and the war on terror, Obama has an equally clear advantage in the arena of social spending.
48% trust Obama on Health Care, versus 38% who trust McCain. That’s because 48% of voters now think health care can and should be free, at least for them. 49% trust Obama on Education, versus only 34% who trust McCain. Again, that’s because half of American voters think throwing other-peoples-money at the problem is the solution, even though the facts are counter-indicating.
This is why voters expect Obama to grow government and raise taxes. Half of Americans believe that the solution to every problem is to throw other-peoples-money at it. Obama agrees…
Americans are concerned with rising health care costs and they are seeking a free solution. Yet again, it is odd that they seem to trust the same folks who bankrupted Social Security and Medicare, to manage the entire health care industry.
Likewise, voters seem to trust the same folks who wrecked public education to solve the problems in public education. They trust the folks who gave us the HMO to fix the problems created by the HMO. This is a great example of just how confused the electorate is today.
Voters are not happy with the results of liberal education and health care policies of the past, yet they look to liberals to solve the problems they created, with more liberal policies. Why?
End Analysis
The electorate seems to be caught between campaign rhetoric and reality. They are not happy with how things are going, but they are not sure what’s wrong specifically, what to do about it, or who to trust to do it. A reasonable number seem to be aware of the facts, but few seem impressed by those facts at present.
They believe that government is too big, taxes are already too high and that the recent tax relief was by no means enough, but they still favor the candidate most likely grow government and raise taxes. Why?
They believe that more needs to be done to win the war on terror and secure the nation, but they still favor the politician they trust least to accomplish either of those initiatives. Why?
As I have written before, when it comes to national elections, people get confused between rhetoric and reality and in the end, even though they don’t like where they are, they are not sure where to go or how to get there.
It’s too bad that rhetoric keeps reality out of focus. American voters still seem to get the problems, but not the proper solutions. So long as that remains the case, there is a good chance they will continue to create more problems for themselves in the election booth.
This is called “democracy.”
Thank God we are a “constitutional republic.” While Americans try to sift through all the vote pandering, Bin Laden may be Planning Hiroshima-Type Destruction…
Voters had better choose their priorities carefully… and return to working with the facts rather than the empty rhetoric.
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