Assessing Florida
By Ari Kaufman (12/02/08)
Once the dust had settled a month ago, the American map had changed from four years back, yet was still the same in many ways. One cannot avoid noticing the midwest looked much like the coasts, but the plains, big sky and south, sans Virginia and North Carolina, were still quite red. Then there stood Florida, always desired, and especially since 2000. Like other southern and western states with rapid population increases, the Sunshine State is perpetually changing "colors," thus difficult for either party to consistently and confidently claim.
Though on a clear day legend says you can climb a few hundred feet in a southern Florida lighthouse in, say, Jupiter, and see Jacksonville 300 miles to the north due to the mundane landscape, Floridians are a blur of diversity: old and young, educated and non-educated, white and black, Jewish and Christian, Jill the Boca Raton yoga instructor and Joe the Apopka plumber.
The networks called Florida for Obama early in the election evening, leaving many Americans unaware of how close this state turned out: 200,000 votes and about 2% -- much closer than 2004 when President Bush won by 400,000 votes and five percent.
While Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana could revert back to red soon enough (2008 was a "historic" and unusual election) and Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico and perhaps Colorado and Iowa could be blue for some time, candidates will live and die with Ohio and Florida forever it seems -- and for different reasons:
Ohio's balance is, of course, based upon a dozen big cities and union towns versus rural farming communities, but Florida's votes are determined heavily by immigration, religion, military and the economy, though the latter is more about IRAs, social security and health care than the closures of factories, coal mines and steel mills such as in the Buckeye State. It's therefore more exciting yet confusing to analyze this peninsular state than nearly any other.
As journalists like Michael Barone constantly reminded us before and during the election, Florida's rather impossible to understand due to, for starters, the conservative panhandle up top (over 70% McCain in many counties) and liberal South Florida (58-68% Obama in the three major counties), who are so removed from one another, culturally and physically. In early 2006, I lived in the southeastern part of Florida for six months, but made a point of traveling throughout the state whenever possible; it's a common line in the Sunshine State that one physically moves north to get culturally south. Due to northern transplants, it's also vice versa as you move physically south.
Jacksonville was one of the only "largest cities in a state" to go Republican, while the historic naval area of Pensacola -- 354 miles west and actually twice as close to New Orleans -- also went heavily McCain. In fact, the entire width of the Panhandle along I-10 went McCain sans the state capital/university area of Tallahassee. Thus, with north and south settled for now, the most rapidly growing area in the state is most cherished and the "central focus" of this piece.
The area is deemed the I-4 corridor for the intra-state interstate that traverses the land, from the gulf coast of Tampa/Saint Petersburg on the southwest end through Orlando to the northeast terminus along the Atlantic in Daytona Beach. Orlando, the only major "interior city" in the Sunshine State, is the most densely-populated portion, and many times we've made the northern pilgrimage through the hills of Kentucky and Tennessee, down into those warm swamplands. My in-laws live about 20 miles northeast of downtown Orlando, in a new, gated middle-class community that, if it weren't for the pools enclosed by screens (a Florida staple), could be Greenwood, Indiana, or Placerville, California.
They're Colombian, and though their subdivision is predominantly caucasians with pick-up trucks, I spoke with their Cuban neighbor, who drives a Lexus. Known as staunch Republicans opposed to anything that reeks of Communism or left-wing fascism, this ex-college basketball coach, was not interested in discussing ideology or national security. And though he voted McCain, like 51% of those in Seminole County, that was along the fiscal "Joe the plumber" side, living the American dream, running his own small business out of his 3000 square foot single family home. He likes America, and is tired of the negativity and constant whining.
"No one's poor in America -- at least not by choice. Look at Cuba, South America, Africa or the middle east, right? We’re spoiled, man. We are truly blessed, though people don't want to be told that."
But in terms of the hispanic vote, this gentleman's sentiments may have been the minority view in Florida. Overall for 2008, Obama captured 57% of this group's vote, with Hispanics comprising 14 percent Florida voters. Then again, maybe this was just a different year nationally, as locally conservatism still flourished.
"Floridians voted strongly to cut taxes, voted to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman, and they opposed tax increases for community colleges," Carla Rivera, Deputy Press Secretary for the Republican Party of Florida told me. "This demonstrates that at the core, Florida is still a red state where conservative values and principles are important to voters. The 2008 election results are simply not indicative of a huge change in the electorate in Florida."
My wife and I have taken day and overnight trips throughout Central Florida while on vacation over the years, and recalling those, with the help of the 2008 electoral map, may help deduce some of this region's politics.
Deland is about 40 miles to the northeast of Orlando along the I-4 corridor. It's a century-old city which is saying something in Florida, as the state lacks much pre 20th century history outside of the Panhandle area. DeLand seems southern and fairly conservative, even with Stetson University in town, perhaps the state's top academic school. Yet John Kerry won here with 50%, and Obama 52%. The tipping point, if you will, may have been that Volusia County is 11% black.
The Villages is a locale where Sarah Palin drew a record-setting 50,000 person crowd in September. The "town," dotted with those man-made lakes and golf course homes which you'd only find in Florida and perhaps Arizona, is the classic retirement community, 65 miles northwest of Orlando along I-75. Palin-mania clearly struck here, and helped the ticket to the point that, even with a 12% black populace, McCain garnered 63% of Sumter County's vote to Bush's 62% in 2004, a rare increase between the two Republican candidates. Military retirees and the middle class dominate this town, with 98% of the populace being over 45 years old.
"As for the future of the GOP in Florida, if you look at where Republicans ran well-funded, active campaigns, we won," Rivera added. "In contrast, the Democrats weren’t able to peel away House and Senate seats in the best possible environment they have EVER seen, even with the strongest ground game they have ever had. We had a lot of success stories on election night, and I think as it is analyzed, folks will look at Florida and ask what we did differently."
As Rivera noted, Obama's coattails were short. Democrats unable to ride them as far as they should have been able to, with Floridians voting to maintain overwhelming majorities in the State House and Senate.
"Political insiders have said for weeks that having Obama on the ticket would create down ticket problems for the GOP," said Rivera. "Yet even in a watershed year, Florida Democrats didn’t defeat one Republican incumbent. Republicans will lose only one seat in the Florida House. Florida Republicans had a good night."
Undoubtedly, with ten different media markets, including some of the biggest in the nation, Florida, like many of America's other highly-populated states, is a TV state.
"No matter how strong a candidate is, getting up on TV is not only important, it is essential," noted Rivera. "Senator McCain was outspent five to one on television, yet because of strength of the ground game, we came within two and a half points."
Alas, this was also the case in Indiana, Ohio and numerous other states that Obama turned from red to blue. Money may be an issue on voters’ minds, but Obama had so much more of it, thanks to the most affluent among us, who keyed his win. It'll thus be important to track if the "disappearing" middle class benefits during his administration.
Ari Kaufman
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