Illinois Keyes
By Adam Graham (08/06/04)
Alan Keyes is considering a run for the US Senate in Illinois after party leaders offered him the GOP nomination. It’s his for the asking, despite his Maryland residency. This can be quickly corrected by a move to Illinois before election day. As Keyes mulls his decision, there are several factors that must be taken into consideration.
1) Issue of principle: Keyes said back in 2000 that he had a problem with Hillary Clinton’s move to New York to run for the Senate, “I deeply resent the destruction of federalism represented by Hillary Clinton's willingness to go into a state she doesn't even live in and pretend to represent people there, so I certainly wouldn't imitate it.” Of course, few people have discussed the context of those remarks. Pat Buchanan met with Keyes and was wanting him to move to New York and run as the Right-to-Life candidate for Senate, now a District of Columbia Resident deciding that a Marylander should run for the US Senate struck Keyes very poorly.
The difference between the Keyes and Clinton cases are pronounced. The fact is that had Hillary not run, Democrats already had a willing candidate in Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY), but Hillary imposed herself on the race. Keyes is being begged by a desperate state party to make the journey to Illinois and give them a credible nominee. This should seem a familiar story to Keyes as this is how he found himself the 1988 Maryland US Senate nominee.
Of course, Keyes is still troubled by the principle of the idea. He’s admitted that. He’ll have to resolve within himself of what decision will serve the nation and the more than 10 million strangers in the State of Illinois. The People of Illinois if given the choice of Keyes v. Obama race or allowing Obama a cakewalk, which would they choose, and which is better for Illinois Democracy?
2) Family: If elected, it would mean huge changes for Keyes’ family who have already had to deal with quite a bit in 1996 and 2000. This campaign would be a sprint compared to the last two campaigns, but it’ll still be a hard choice.
3) Money: In 1992, Keyes was the Republican nominee for Senate and was then abandoned by the national party. As the old saying, “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.” Keyes has to know that from sources in or out of the Illinois, he can get enough money to compete with Obama.
4) The Convention Spot: There’s no way that this is happening without at least the tacit support of the Bush White House. The White House would like a good victory in the Electoral College this November which means Illinois is a prime electoral prize. Bush will struggle if Obama’s unopposed and the GOP has a candidate who lacks passion. Keyes can bring a lot of people out who would otherwise stay home. However, for Keyes’ campaign to be a success, he’ll need to have the same platform Obama had: a prime speaking spot at The National Convention. It would cause a hissy fit among those who are trying to organize another infomercial. If Keyes can’t get the spot, it will be a huge negative.
5) Probable Victory: Keyes’ nomination is a Hail Mary pass from the Illinois GOP and everyone knows it. Odds of success are better than any other probable candidate, but have to be at least 2:1 against him. He’s pinch-hitting with less than 90 days to go in the race and replacing a disgrace nominee. He’s facing a charismatic and charming opponent. Keyes has to consider what he can reasonably do in 2 ½ months to win this race. The entire campaign would be unprecedented in the history of American politics. If Illinois Republicans can’t find a suitable candidate in a State of 10 million people, how much can Keyes rely on the help of the locals? Keyes’, however did have a great organization in neighboring Iowa and may pick up some volunteers from there.
Keyes will want to know that even if he loses, he won’t lose ugly. He has to believe that he can at least garner 40% of the vote and have a strong chance of making this a close race. Keyes won’t sign up to get his teeth kicked in for the Illinois GOP. If Keyes runs, he’ll to prove that he can run a close race and more importantly he’ll run to win.
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