Winners And Losers Of Election 2004
By Vincent Fiore (11/07/04)
The election of 2004 has finally, and mercifully, come to a close. So what do millions of voters, the most ever for a presidential election, (though not in overall percentage) do now that the frantic pace of the campaigns are behind them? The winners will celebrate for a few days, and the losers will engage in some soul-searching and despondency.
After these first few days of the highest highs and the lowest lows--and from what I have seen and read, this is not an overstatement--Americans will slip back into the comfy confines of their lives. It has been a long and torturous campaign.
But besides President Bush being Tuesday’s big winner, there were an abundance of other winners--and losers as well. Here are a few that will stand out as we look back at the Election of 2004.
Winner: The American voter. Nearly 117 million voters flocked to the polls on Tuesday, a record number. Voters braved lines that were at times eight hours long. In many parts of the country that day, bad weather was thought to be a factor in keeping turnout low. Yet neither rain, sleet, nor threat of long lines into the night kept the voters away from their appointed polling precincts.
Loser: New York and New Jersey. To be completely honest, I did not really expect much to change in the voting preferences of these two bastions of liberalism. Still, I am disappointed. President Bush proved himself true to his word after 9/11 by giving New York some 20 billion dollars of aid. Couple this with the Republican National Convention this year and it becomes clear that this president felt a profound need to see the Big Apple shine once more. At least New Jersey gave the pretense of going for Bush on election night, but the state’s liberal leanings are, if anything, more firmly rooted than ever, regardless of the 700-plus souls the Garden State lost to terror on the west side of Manhattan on 9/11.
Winner: Election night political commentators. Fox News’ Bill Kristol was one of the first to observe just how woefully inaccurate the now infamous exit polling was. Couple this with the incredibly precise precinct data from Michael Barone, who seemed to know just how many voters each party would claim, and you had nothing short of a stellar performance. CNN’s James Carville receives high praise for his heart-felt and honest admission that President Bush has “a superior hand in this election right now.” Though CNN regulars Zahn, Begala, and Woodruff relayed to the viewer otherwise, Carville nailed what ails the Democratic Party today: the absence of the rural voter.
Loser: Election night political commentators. If you tuned to MSNBC around 11:00 pm, you saw political pundit Chris Matthews wishing he was within reach of a sharp object. Once the networks called Florida for Bush, Matthews looked for all the world like a very distraught Kerry supporter. Up until that point, Matthews was semi- declarative and jovial in his support of a Kerry administration, and unashamedly gleeful when discussing early exit polling. Perhaps the strangest performance of the night goes to Fox News politico Susan Estrich. Looking glassy-eyed and at times acquiring a southern accent, Estrich boasted of having first-hand knowledge of Florida and Ohio, claiming they would both go for Kerry. Did Miss Estrich start celebrating a bit too soon in the day after viewing those fictitious exit polls? One hopes that Fox had the sense to designate a driver for her after a long and disappointing night.
Winner: John Kerry. Showing the grace and class that was so absent during his campaign, Kerry took a good look at the election results, and conceded. “I offered him [Bush] and Laura our congratulations on their victory. We had a good conversation, and we talked about the danger of division in our country and the need -- the desperate need for unity, for finding the common ground, coming together. Today I hope that we can begin the healing.” But Kerry went even further: “The outcome should be decided by voters, not a protracted legal process.” Kerry’s words remind us that sometimes, the best things said in a campaign are said after it is over.
Loser: John Edwards. John Edwards is finished as a presidential contender. Choosing Edwards as his vice presidential running-mate was Kerry’s biggest blunder of the campaign. Edwards proved to be just “a good head of hair.” Lacking in policy and breadth, his “two Americas” mantra fell short after the primaries. After his debate against Dick Cheney, Edwards engaged in the politics of stealth—rarely seen and even less heard. His “concession” speech was a prelude to 2008, but it is already over for him before it’s begun.
Winner: The Internet. When the first batch of exit polls came out about 1:30 pm, EST, it took about five minutes for bloggers and web masters to spread the word. George W. Bush may owe part of his victory to this part of the new media, as spaces like this one and others quickly debunked the polling data much the same way that Dan Rather and “memogate” was exposed. Kudos to the pajama-wearing blogger brigades.
Loser: The old Media. Those sounds you hear are the last gasping breaths of the New York Times and CBS News. Staunchly opposed to Bush throughout his first term, the prospect of a second four years in office exposed the deep-seated bias among the old media and forever revealed themselves to the public at large. The question, “is there a liberal bias in the main stream media?” has been fully addressed by the very actions of the media themselves during this campaign.
Other Winners: Hillary Clinton, who can start her run for 2008. Rasmussen polling, who came closest to the actual numbers in the end. Realclearpolitics.com, which became “The” polling source for nearly every political pundit and junkie alike. The Republican Party, which increased its numbers within the Senate and the House, and along with President Bush, lay claim to the mandate that eluded them the first four years.
Other Losers: The “youth” vote decided to sleep in on Election Day, with only a disappointing 17% showing up at the polls. Hollywood and entertainment types like Michael Moore and Bruce Springsteen, who probably aided Bush in his reelection bid by simply being something their not: Politically in touch with the people.
Exit polling and pollster John Zogby were both seriously off on Election Day. In Zogby’s case, it became near-impossible for him to predict an informed opinion, as in May, 2004, he predicted that the race was “Kerry’s to lose.” On Election Day, Zogby conveniently posted a prediction of a 311-259 electoral vote tally for Kerry; right after the first batch of suspect exit polling came out. All in all, it was a hapless display of wishful thinking through the madness of polls.
The Democratic Party, which has lost power for a generation, was Tuesday’s biggest loser. Leaderless and apparently clueless as to what the majority of America thinks, Democrats will have to huddle together and re-invent their party, which may mean finding religion in a hurry.
Finally, I was a loser on this day. I predicted chaos would run rampart during the voting process, and after. While there will be a few isolated incidents in the days to come, it seems that America has steered clear of electoral Armageddon. My apologies to all, as I lacked the ability to see past the debacle of 2000.
All in all, 2004 comes to an exciting close as one of the most politically charged seasons on record. And just think, we get to do it all over again in 2006.
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