The Bush - Cheney Sweep In 2004 Tidewater Virginia
By James Bowden (11/09/04)
A sweeping political victory, when it is so crushing, is a source of humility – for the Victor. The first wash of victory which humbles is the overwhelming sense of gratitude. Your neighbors stood with you for a vital common cause. Thanks, folks, dear fellow citizens. The second wave is the understanding the reasons why you won and not engaging in self-delusion. Finally, it’s the detailed analysis of voting and figuring out what it means for the future. A win can be squandered by bullying, arrogance and stupidity.
Every Vote Counted. (http://sbe.vipnet.org. Also see a map of The Virginia Peninsula). The big margin of victory in Poquoson, York, James City and New Kent carried the whole of The Peninsula. My town, Poquoson, came in #1 in Commonwealth in Republican votes (77.22%). Hooah! So, the winning 8,000 votes in York wiped out the Democrat win in Hampton. The 4,000 extra votes in Poquoson took out Democrat wins in Newport News and Williamsburg. So, all the extra votes in James City and New Kent helped counter Fairfax-Arlington-Alexandria Democrat votes. How every single vote from our little communities matters across our 7 million person Commonwealth is breath-taking.
Coalitions Win, Factions Lose. Victory is made on common ground that the Army teaches is ‘key terrain’. In other words, a single issue, for example WW IV, brings together a coalition of people who respectfully agree to disagree otherwise. Thus, one majority stands on the key terrain of WW IV being a war of national survival against Islamist Terrorism. The election wasn’t won by Christian Evangelicals or any single faction. Yet, Democrat Howard Dean was right, sorta, about “God, Guns, and Gays” for Southern voters - although I’d make it a more nuanced list. Liberals think their holy trinity of race, class, and gender determines all things. In fact, individuals vote ideas. Ideas are shaped, profoundly, by culture. Culture commands the scope of thought, but, still, individuals exercise free will. Especially in our free, open society. A winning coalition coalesces enough majority ideas to win.
Winning Ideas. Republican winning ideas in this election cross the lines of race, class and gender with one terrible exception. Virginia Republicans earn votes from every race, creed and color, except our share of Black votes is still in the 9 to 20% range. This is another tragic legacy of slavery, segregation and racism. Sadly, and cynically, it’s promoted by persons whose livelihood is based on separateness – by the color of their skin. The future of Republican ideas resonating with Blacks depends on the day when the sub-culture is dominated by Black men building Christian families instead of creating out-of-wedlock children.
I tell folks that we get the ‘best Yankees’ moving into the South. For the most part, we really do. Just as we get wonderful immigrants from outside the U.S. The majority of our non-native born Virginians love liberty, hate taxes, worship God, thrive on capitalism, want to provide for their families themselves, and hunger for education and individual opportunity. Their ideas are Republican in Virginia – today.
The Next Election. Nothing is in the bag for the future. Democrats, take heart, you can win the gubernatorial election and seats in the General Assembly in 05. Please note, I didn’t say ‘Liberals’ can win. Gov. Mark Warner ran as a conservative. Republicans will have a short civil war in 05 and 07 as we determine if our Delegates and Senators must live up to Virginia Republican Creed – lower taxes and limited government - or not. Attorney General Jerry Kilgore is endorsed by every Republican down to assistant precinct captain. Yet, how can he be the ‘take back the tax hike’ candidate if he mutually endorses the 17 House of Delegates’ incumbents who raised our taxes – in a year we had a budget surplus? Furthermore, if Kilgore doesn’t run as a ‘take back the tax hike’ candidate, then why, oh why, vote Republican in 05?
What Is Really Next. We all get to take a deep breath, have a heartfelt Thanksgiving, CHRISTmas, New Year’s and celebrate a national continuance of power without soldiers in the street. This peaceful rule of law is a key point in common between Liberals and Conservatives. Congratulate one another. Winners must respect how deeply our opponents hold their convictions. We can, and should, continue to oppose every wrong notion springing from their thoughts. But, disagreements must be made civilly in Virginia.
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