Playing the Odds
By Jan Larson (09/12/05)
Flood protection levees were first built around New Orleans starting in the late 1800s. Following Hurricane Betsy, the federal government stepped in with the Flood Control Act of 1965. This legislation set in motion a series of levee construction projects design to protect New Orleans [1]. All of the engineering for these projects assumed a fast-moving hurricane equivalent to Betsy, rated as category three on the Saffir-Simpson scale [2].
It has long been known that the levee system could not protect the city from a category four or five hurricane. Why would officials take such a risk when the consequences, as we’ve seen, of such a storm were so devastating? Two reasons: money and probability.
The likelihood of a category four or stronger hurricane making a direct strike on New Orleans was determined to be about once every 200 to 300 years. In fact, there have only been three category five hurricanes to make landfall in the United States since records have been kept. The cost to upgrade the levee system to protect for this “worst case” was and is not insignificant. In fact, with the projected cost being in the billions of dollars and the probability so low, it is as a practical matter, politically untenable for politicians to ask taxpayers to pony up that kind of money to protect them from something that isn’t likely to happen during their lifetimes. It is especially untenable to ask taxpayers in other states, which is of course, where federal flood control money comes from.
Before disaster strikes, it is natural for people to think that it won’t happen to them. Just like the lottery, it always happens to someone else, somewhere else and at some other time.
Commenting on the disaster in New Orleans, Rep. David Obey (D-WI) asked, “How many times do we have to see disaster overwhelm our preparedness before we recognize that we are playing Russian roulette with people's lives, with their livelihoods and with the life of whole communities?"
The answer is, of course, just about every time. Our government didn’t protect us from terrorists crashing airplanes into buildings before September 11 and they didn’t protect the citizens of New Orleans from a catastrophic flood before Katrina.
Hindsight is always 20/20 and so in the next few months there will undoubtedly be calls to beef up the New Orleans levees to protect against the strongest hurricane likely to ever occur. But is that a good idea? After all, the probability of another category four or five storm hitting New Orleans remains at once every 200-300 years.
There are plenty of areas in the country that are at risk for a natural disaster, some on a massive scale, but hurricanes are never a surprise. If officials act appropriately and citizens act responsibly, there should never be any fatalities as a direct result of a hurricane. Unfortunately, as we’ve seen in New Orleans, appropriate action by government officials and responsible decisions by citizens are not always, if ever, the norm.
We all assume risks every day. There are upwards of 35,000 traffic fatalities in the United States every year, but I’m willing to wager than most if not all of you reading this right now drive regularly. People living in New Orleans have known for years that a devastating hurricane could strike the city and that it was possible for the city to be flooded yet not only did they assume the risk of living there, but many also continued to assume that risk even as Katrina approached.
The city of Seattle sits in the shadow of Mt. Rainier, an active volcano. Much like its neighbor to the south, Mt. Saint Helens, one day it will erupt. It might be 10 years, 100 years or 1000 years, but eventually that day will come. The potential devastation from an eruption is enormous, but as is the case with hurricanes, an eruption of Mt. Rainier is unlikely to be a surprise and the residents of the Puget Sound region assume that risk. If the worst were to happen, there would be great loss of property, but hopefully the loss of life would be minimized through diligent disaster planning.
Seismologists have predicted that some day, sooner or later, a massive earthquake (the “big one”) will strike California. Again, when that day will come is anyone’s guess. Unlike hurricanes along the coast or volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest, a California earthquake would likely not come with a warning and the loss of life could number in the hundreds of thousands but the odds say that it won’t happen anytime soon, so millions of people are willing to take that chance.
Governments cannot protect everyone from everything that may happen and it would, in the big picture, be irresponsible of government to try. There are better ways to spend (or not spend) billions of dollars than to try to protect New Orleans from a category five hurricane, Seattle from a volcanic eruption or California from earthquakes.
We have seen that even if government has a plan, such as the evacuation plan for the city of New Orleans that was largely ignored, the best-laid plans won’t protect everyone from disaster. It is ultimately up to each individual to choose the level of risk to assume. In the end, people are largely responsible for their own well being and as we’ve seen, to misjudge the risks or to ignore the danger when it stares us in the face can be fatal.
[1] http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/ceonline03/0603feat.html
[2] http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
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