Questions for Russia
By Isaiah Z. Sterrett (09/30/05)
NEWS OUT OF THE Kremlin that Vladimir Putin will not seek a third-term through constitutional manipulation (or military force, for that matter) is highly encouraging, though it is certainly accompanied by important questions which have yet to be answered publicly. President Putin has been very willing of late to discuss things like the Russian AIDS problem—“there is no epidemic,” he says—but the world requires other information, particularly on the issue of nuclear arms. The death of the Soviet Union may have ended the Cold War, but clandestine nuclear proliferation remains a tremendous source of angst. It was only last year that both President Bush and Sen. John Kerry agreed that nukes were the most serious threat to the United States.
Gavin Cameron, author of Nuclear Terrorism: A Threat Assessment for the 21st Century (2001), notes in a recent article that, “[w]hile many nuclear weapons in Russia are adequately protected from theft, others are not. Many Soviet-era tactical nuclear devices are especially vulnerable, and given the smaller size of such weapons, would be particularly suitable for use by terrorists.” He notes further that al-Qaeda has sought, and continues to seek, nuclear weapons.
Troubling, also, is Russia’s recent objection to a European Union resolution which would have reported Iran’s non-compliance to the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to the U.N. Security Council. The United States strongly supported the EU’s position, but Russia wouldn’t hear of it; Moscow was reportedly afraid that such a step would only exacerbate the problem. The result, as one could have predicted, was a very pleased Iran, as evidenced by the fact that Mohammed Saeedi, deputy head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, responded by pointing out that “[t]he EU's withdrawal was a significant victory for Iran.”
Where is the Kremlin’s pronouncement on this issue? The world is arguably more concerned about the security of Russia’s nukes than the future of the Russian AIDS crisis.
Admittedly, much of the political maneuvering on this issue is done, somewhat fittingly, in secret. President Bush will not call a press conference to announce what he’s discussed with Putin on the subject of Russia’s nuclear weapons cache. But Putin, in announcing that he won’t seek another term, should have given his country and the world at least some semblance of confidence in his government’s ability to keep these weapons out of the possession of terrorists.
Another question Putin must address, preferably in consultation with Washington, London, and Sydney, is what’s to become of Chechnya. Putin came to power promising to curb the violence in that region, but he admits that he has been unsuccessful. “It is linked to the impossibility of fully resolving security questions ....We will continue our work to find those missing, and those who are to blame for these crimes,” he says. But is he sincere? As a Reuters article notes, “[r]ights groups say hundreds of Chechens have gone missing since Putin as prime minister sent troops back into Chechnya in 1999—an act which underpinned his popularity and propelled him into the Kremlin in presidential elections six months later.” Might Chechnya be nothing more than a campaign issue for Putin?
Human rights abuses in Chechnya may or may not be as widespread as some claim, but they clearly exist and consequently represent a threat to the future of the Russian Federation. This, in turn, threatens the United States and every other nation which may be disfavored among terrorists. As Human Rights Watch argues, “[i]t is essential to affirm a culture of human rights as an antidote to terrorism.” The fact that Russia is currently bloated by “petrodollars” should not convince the rest of the world of Moscow’s alleged stability. There is a vacuum of power among Chechens, and that’s dangerous. The nuke problem, quite clearly, doesn’t help matters.
There is little President Bush can do on this issue. But diplomats in this country and abroad must continue to place pressure on Russia in order to stem escalating violence in an important region of Russia. Putin is wrong not to address this serious problem.
© Copyright 2005 by Isaiah Z. Sterrett
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