Guest Opinion/Commentary*

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Hadley Hack-in Reveals Hidden Truths
  Global Warming piece by Guest: Dennis T. Avery

CHURCHVILLE, VA - Copenhagen has predictably brought out a new round of claims that humanity is frying the planet. Mother Nature, however, has told us to expect only about 0.5 degree of further warming over the next several centuries. Which is right, Mother Nature or the computerized global climate models championed by Al Gore?

Apparently, we got a revealing glimpse of truth when a hacker last week published files taken from Britain’s Hadley Climate Research Unit - ground zero for the warming alarmists. The hacker, who published on an anonymous Russian site, said: “We feel that climate science is, in the current situation, too important to be kept under wraps.” Hadley has confirmed the hack-in.

One of the alleged emails has Kevin Trenberth of the U.S. National Center on Climate Research, saying to his fellow believers in man-made warming:

“…where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder [on October 12, 2009] where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest day on record. We have 4 inches of snow. The high the past two days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record.

“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming, and it is a travesty that we can’t. The [government satellite radiation data] shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. . . .”

Trenberth is saying the data he’s getting can’t be right because they don’t confirm his theory that the Modern Warming is mostly man-made. But there’s an old saying in science: “If your data don’t confirm your theory, get a new theory.”

We’ve never observed the “runaway warming” predicted by the computerized climate models. The warming from 1976–1998 was not significantly stronger or longer than the warming from 1915–1940 - which was too early to be caused by human-emitted CO2. Both were followed by coolings, not CO2 runaways.

My book, Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years, offers quite a different theory on our global warming - and cites hundreds of peer-reviewed studies documenting a long, moderate, solar-driven climate cycle that goes back a million years. The evidence: oxygen isotopes in ice cores; microfossils in seabed sediments;  fossil pollen; and even the summer skies in old museum paintings, which shifted from sunny in the Medieval Warming to cloudy during the Little Ice Age and then back again after 1850. That longer cycle gave us the Medieval and Roman warmings and the recent Little Ice Age.

We see the current global cooling as triggered by our largest heat sink, the Pacific Ocean, which has a 60-year cycle superimposed on the longer 1,500-year cycle.  The Pacific cooling will frost Dr. Trenberth’s tootsies until about 2038.

The 1500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles deliver about half their total warming in their first few decades, which seems to have been the 0.5 warming from 1850-1940.  Then it will get a bit warmer, erratically, probably totaling half a degree Celsius over the next several centuries - until the next “little ice age” or Big One. 

Despite the UN’s claims, we’ve never found a “human fingerprint” on the Modern Warming.  The computer models all predict man-made warming will produce a strong warming 5 kilometers over the equator - but we’ve had a slight cooling there instead. Another reason for a re-think, Dr. Trenberth?

Since the warming is unstoppable, we must anyway leave Al Gore with his unsold carbon offsets and adapt to Mother Nature.

Dennis T. Avery, Hudson Institute

DENNIS T. AVERY is an environmental economist, and a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC. He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years, Readers may write him at PO Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421

Posted by Guest: Dennis T. Avery on 11/22/09

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