Will she or won’t she?
As Sarah Palin proceeds apace with her book tour there is one question on the mind of friend and foe alike. Will she make a bid for the White House in 2012?
Kathleen O’Brien, a blogger for The Star-Ledger, predicts Sarah Palin will not throw her hat into the ring: http://blog.nj.com/njv_kathleen_obrien/2009/11/my_palin_prediction_she_wont_r.html
The reason she isn’t going to run for president is the process would bore her. That’s the conclusion I’ve reached after reading her memoir, “Going Rogue.“ In it, she routinely describes a deeply rooted restlessness, a propelling engine that always seeks the next challenge.
That means the endless slog of campaigning would grow tiresome, the fundraising would grow really tiresome and the need to muzzle herself would be excruciating. (It was hard enough being muzzled by the McCain people.)
O’Brien goes on to write that Palin isn’t going away and that she’ll probably end up with a television show. Well, there will be a vacancy on weekday afternoons once Oprah is gone.
Yet I think O’Brien has misread Palin. If O’Brien thinks the process of running for the White House would bore Palin then why has she spent nearly the last two decades of her life seeking public office? Palin has sought five different elected offices – Wasilla City Council, Mayor of Wasilla, Lieutenant Governor of Alaska, Governor of Alaska and Vice-President of the United States. This is hardly an indication of someone who is easily bored with the political process.
Now it’s certainly true that Palin felt severely constricted by McCain officials during the 2008 presidential elections. Unlike her previous bids for elected office, Palin had very little say in how the McCain campaign would be run. But how would Palin be “muzzled” if she were at the top of the GOP ticket in 2012? It would be her campaign. To be sure she might have advisers who might caution here and there but those advisers would be people she trusts. She would not be stuck with advisers who weren’t sympathetic to her populist ideas and temperament. In the event she found herself in an uncomfortable situation with campaign staff she would be in a position to rectify it in a way she couldn’t in 2008.
The bottom line is that I think Sarah Palin will seek the Republican nomination for President of the United States. There are four reasons I think why she will do so.
First, Palin has something to prove to herself and to the country. Sadly, she is perceived by many as dull and dimwitted. David Brooks, the token conservative at The New York Times, recently characterized her as “a joke.” ( http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/david-brooks-sarah-palin-is-a-joke——and-bob-mcdonnell-is-the-future.php ) Yet here is a woman who attained elected office before her 30th birthday. At 35, she was seeking her second term as Mayor of Wasilla. She was the Chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission before she turned 40.
At 42, Palin was the youngest person ever elected as Governor of Alaska. To become Governor, Palin had to wrest the Republican nomination from incumbent Governor Frank Murkowski, a man first elected to the U.S. Senate when she was a teenager. Palin then went on to defeat Tony Knowles, a man who was twice elected as Governor of Alaska, in the general election. Yet despite these accomplishments she is looked upon with derision and disdain. Palin is even blamed for costing John McCain the election as if the worst economic collapse in decades had never happened. ( http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-drennen/2008/10/21/cbs-s-smith-asks-mccain-if-palin-may-cost-him-election ) Under the circumstances one cannot help but think Palin wants to prove her critics wrong. The only way she can do that is to be elected President in her own right.
Now some might scoff at the possibility of Sarah Palin in the White House. Yet Palin has something going for her that other Republican contenders can only dream of. She has a dedicated following of people who are prepared to run through a brick wall for her. Naturally, liberal elites and some condescending conservatives dismiss Palin’s supporters out of hand. This is a mistake. Indeed, the one thing Palin and President Obama have in common is the devotion of their supporters. While such a thing can lead to a cult of personality let us not forget that a presidential candidate needs people who are ready to stand in pouring rain or a blizzard to find other supporters. It is the sort of diligence that is the difference between winning and losing elections. One cannot underestimate the strength of Palin’s supporters.
One must also not underestimate Palin herself. The David Brooks of the world can call her a joke all he wants. Alan Colmes can wish she becomes the Republican nominee to his heart’s content. Yet when Palin speaks people listen. If President Obama is unsuccessful in bringing about health care reform the person most responsible for its defeat would be Sarah Palin. Her use of the term “death panel” was crucial in galvanizing and mobilizing people against this albatross of debt and assault on individual freedom. Of course, those who support Obamacare like Howard Dean were aghast and vented his outrage on the pages of The Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/howard-dean/the-medias-treatment-of-p_b_255878.html But if there is no such thing as “death panels” then why is there now an article on The Huffington Post which asks, “What’s So Wrong With Death Panels?” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jacob-m-appel/whats-so-wrong-with-death_b_366804.html Like it or not, Sarah Palin has left an indelible imprint on the health care debate.
Finally, we must also consider the political fortunes of President Obama. Assuming they should continue to decline resulting in legislative defeats in 2010 and a possible challenge to Obama for the Democratic nomination then Palin would be crazy not to take the chance and run. Of course, the liberal media would be so deep in the tank for Obama that they would have to report from Sea World. The odds won’t be in Sarah Palin’s favor. But since when has that stopped her.
Aaron Goldstein
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